It's hard to follow up a smashing success, just ask the sequel to Joker. Jokes aside the Nintendo Switch has been a massive success for the company, and it's going to end up as one of the most sold consoles ever. Nintendo really needed this success after the failure of the Wii U (even though it deserved much better), and the middling success of the 3DS family of products. The Switch from launch was very popular, and over the course of 2020 saw another round of high demand as people were at home and looking for ways to entertain themselves. Now going on almost 8 years later we may actually see the unveiling and launch of the "Switch 2". And from my perspective, it's going to be much less successful than the original.
So what makes me believe that the successor to the most popular console of the last decade will not reach the same heights? Well I think we are just in a much different time period than before. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the Switch 2 will be a failure like the Wii U in terms of sales, but I'd expect closer to 3DS levels of success for sure. This is primarily based on my own read of the gaming landscape here at the end of 2024, and my experiences around the original Switch.
#1. The Switch is a platform for Nintendo games
What I mean by this is that people really only buy Nintendo games for their Switch. I mean, that makes sense right? Well yes, but other platforms like PlayStation also very much see 3rd party developers succeed as well. The Switch was a hot item for many gamers in its early years, but over time the 3rd party support has dried up. Indie games still get released on the Switch and see success, but even that is a bit more rare than it used to be. While in college from 2019 - 2023, I didn't even knew many of my classmates had a Switch until Tears of the Kingdom came out. Couple this with younger kids primarily playing Fortnite, Roblox, and Minecraft they don't need a Switch to play those games. Nintendo games will continue to drum up excitement from their loyal fans, but there is a difference between buying a game for a console you already picked up because of a time period like 2020, and buying a whole new console when your life is back to normal.
#2: There won't be another pandemic (hopefully)
I genuinely believe that the Switch got a mid-generation boost because of the pandemic. My own family is a product of that, having bought a Switch to help kill the time. Without another "once in a lifetime" event like that, it seems unlikely that the Switch 2 will possibly have as strong of sales for the same duration that the original has. This will give the Switch 2 a more normal sales/interest curve.
#3: Tablet kids and Steam Deck adults
When the Switch launched it was the best way to play high quality games on the go. Even thought there were early things like the GPD Win that could play PC games, it comes nowhere close to the experience of owning a Steam Deck or ROG Ally. While these PC handhelds have not seen the same level of success as the Switch, they are competitors in the space that did not exist at the launch of the Switch. Especially when you compound this with Xbox gamers really being pushed towards PC gaming at this point, and PlayStation releasing many of their titles on PC, many gamers the past few years have been migrating to PC gaming. PC gamers can now play almost any game not made by Nintendo (RIP Yuzu), and while this could lend a hand to getting a Switch 2 to fill that gap, again, PC handhelds are there ready to offer the ability to play the games PC gamers already own, on the go, if that is something they care about.
On the other hand, kids are universally growing up with a tablet at arms reach at all times (despite the negative consequences). This again already gives them access to many of the games kids seem to be enthralled in. While kids with tablets were a thing back in 2017, the percentage is dramatically higher now. While yes, some kids will want to "upgrade" to having a console like the Switch 2, my guess is that its going to be a harder sell on parents who already buy V-bucks and Roblox-bucks (or whatever they're called) in the hundreds of dollars per year.
#4 It's the trend
The final piece of "evidence" would be that Nintendo's follow up to a big successful console always seems to do worse. Starting all the way back with the NES and SNES. The NES "brought home gaming from the dead in the US", and the SNES did well but didn't light the world on fire. Part of this was because of the Sega Genesis for sure, again leaning into their being more competition for the Switch 2 than the original Switch. The Wii was followed up by the Wii U. The Wii U had a lot of issues, but partly you can say that casual families were content to keep playing their same Wii games they had been for years, and my theory is many casual families will be fine playing the same games they have now for the Switch.
So who knows, maybe I'll revisit this post 2-3 years down the line and think about how stupid I was to think the Switch 2 wouldn't be as successful as it's predecessor. But of course the reason I am writing this today, is because I believe in my theory. Again, I do not believe the Switch 2 will be a failure, but it certainly will not be the same smashing success. I stand by my theory right now that the Switch 2 will fall into the same level of success as the 3DS family did.
(Cover photo credit: gamerant.com)
